Why Israel should not intervene in the Syrian civil war

by Gideon

Many people around the world ask why Israel sits on the sideline like the rest of the world  and watches helplessly the genocide on the other side of its northern border. If given the order, the Israeli army could be in Damascus and topple the Assad regime in few days.  

What would happen if Israelis demand from their government to stop the Syrian genocide and Israel launches a massive attack on the Assad regime?

Israel will pay a heavy price for crossing the Israeli-Syrian border:

The Assad regime will launch at Israel everything it got. The Iranians, who supports Assad, will activate their proxy terror organization Hezbollah to launch thousands of rockets into Israel. The Russians and the Iranians may also launch direct attacks on the advancing Israeli army. There will be heavy causalities on both sides, many of them civilians.

The Assad Regime, the Hezbollah, the Iranians, and the Russian forces will not be able to stop the IDF, but they’ll inflict heavy casualties on the Israeli army in the process. The regional conflict may turn into a much bigger war, where the US, North Korea, Russia, Pakistan, and other countries are drawn into it in support of their respective allies.

Even so, what would happen if Israelis are willing to endure direct attacks on their cities and soldiers in order to stop the genocide in Syria? What should Israel do once it captures the Syrian capital? 

If there is one thing that unites most people in the Arab world is their hatred for Israel.

In one scenario, In attempt to avoid attacks on its soldiers by militant Syrian rival forces, Israel would retreat immediately after removing Assad from power, turning over the responsibility for instilling order to a UN peace keeping forces.

The problem with this scenario is that previous attempts in Iraq and Libya by coalition forces to do the same thing failed miserably. It is a risky approach. It is more likely that Syria will become another Libya or Iraq; a failed state in an endless civil war, and a safe heaven for terrorists. A launching pad for waves of attacks against Israel and other neighboring countries (Turkey, Jordan). 

In another scenario, after the Assad regime is removed, Israel would stay in Syria and  attempt to instill order on its own.

Israel has tried the same approach in Lebanon, a country which is much smaller then Syria. It wasn’t a success story: The Israeli army was stuck in the Lebanese swamp for almost twenty years (1982 – 2000). During this period Israel has suffered heavy causalities. Israel eventually withdrew from Lebanon, leaving the Lebanese people to sort their problems on their own. The vacuum that was created when Israel left Lebanon in 2000 was filled by the terror organization Hezbollah. Repeated terror attacks against Israel by Hezbollah from Southern Lebanon forced Israel to invade Lebanon again in 2006, in a war that inflicted heavy casualties on both sides.

As tragic as it is, Israelis with all their good intentions should not come to the aid of the Syrians. They’ll make the situation worse. A humanitarian action by Israel is likely to fuel the civil war in Syria even more, making the problem bigger than it already is. The Syrian problems could only be solved by intervention of a coalition of forces from Arab countries with the backing of the US. Such coalition will not be seen as the “enemy” by the locals and will have a chance to succeed.

Related Posts:

Frozen in time: The Golan Heights – What in its future?

The Battle on Mount Hermon in the Yom Kippur War of 1973 – The courage of the Golani soldiers under fire

The Syrian mess and the strategic importance of the Golan Heights in the war against global Jihad

 

 

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